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Login to Standard Life Login to 7IMOver the second quarter of 2024, investor focus has remained on inflation and interest rate policy on each side of the Atlantic. Artificial Intelligence has remained at the fore, becoming increasingly prominent in companies plans. While economies globally look fairly robust, corporate businesses and consumers are continuing to see easing of inflationary pressures.
The first quarter of 2024 has remained focused on inflation and interest rate policy on each side of the Atlantic. The previous market view ‘higher for longer’ rotated into a course of easing rates in early January. This view was somewhat diluted over the second half of Q1 while continued resilience in the US employment market and some geopolitical events changed some viewpoints to a more cautionary stance.
Over the final quarter of 2023, inflation and interest rates expectations flipped from the view of ‘higher for longer’ to possible hold or easing. November's inflation data came in lower than forecast and the main central banks held rates unchanged, which fuelled the change in sentiment. This gave a strong boost to markets and, particularly the more interest rate sensitive sectors, such as technology and real estate.
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Over the third quarter to 29th September of 2023, inflation remained elevated in the west with interest rates matching suit. The market narrative in the US flipped from a view of reducing interest rates to them being a higher for longer. The US economy has shown resilience as rates have risen.
Over the second quarter to 30 June 2023, inflation remained elevated in the west. Central banks reacted by increasing interest rates in the UK, US, and Europe. Over the coming period we expect inflation to remain as a key focus.
What a year it's been! Rising interest rates, rising cost of living, rising taxation and volatility across the global financial markets driven by various unsettling events and dynamics.
Over the fourth quarter, which took us to 31 December 2022, inflation remained elevated and further interest rate increases occurred in the UK, US and Europe. As we enter the new year, investors will be hoping for greater stability with an eye remaining focused on inflation and central bank policy. The combination of rate increases should allow inflation to retreat across the year.
The third financial quarter (1 July to 30 September 2022) was dominated by rising inflation and further increases in interest rates in the UK and US. The European Central Bank (ECB) has also started to tighten rates to curb inflation across the region. Central Banks continue to try and strike a difficult balance - the need to control inflation and the need to maintain growth in the economy.
Over the last two years we have experienced increasing numbers of clients looking to take stock of their finances and focus more on future financial projections to ascertain if ensure they are on track to meet their life goals. This is a perfectly natural concern when we are faced with uncertainty as has been the case with, for example, the onset of Covid and the current situation in Ukraine.
The first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the conflict in the Ukraine. Looking beyond the humanitarian impact, the crisis has created volatility and distorted markets. Central banks have remained on guard as inflation numbers have increased and this has led to interest rates rises in the UK and US. Energy companies have clearly been the biggest beneficiaries in the short term as prices have spiked.
